There's one group stage match left for Olympic Women's Soccer and there are plenty of question marks about the eight teams advancing. With 12 teams, there are two different ways to advance. The top two teams in each group automatically advance. Of the third-place teams, the top two "next best" teams will also advance. It all comes down to which countries can deliver results on the final match day.
The Key Matchups
Australia
You just don't know what you're going to get out of Australia at this tournament. A wild 6-5 win over Zambia certainly shows grit and an ability to find goals when it matters. But their first two games haven't been confidence-building. It certainly doesn't help that goalkeeper Mackenzie Arnold hasn't had the performances she'd like. With their final match being against the US, getting a result looks difficult. More than anything, Australia will need to figure out their defense, at least enough to get a draw and hope Zambia can upset Germany. With six goals, hopefully, the offense is sorted out and now it's time for the defense to stop the bleeding.
Brazil
It looked like Brazil would secure three points against Japan, but a penalty kick and a late-game banger ended that hope. Tied for second right now with Japan, Brazil has the harder task of needing a result against Spain, while also hoping that Japan ties or wins with Nigeria. The Olympics haven't seen the best of Brazil, despite the opening win against Nigeria. A team in transition, the fluidity and, quite frankly, the luck required just haven't been there. Brazil will need the offense to kick into high gear, especially against a very good Spain. It's going to take a complete and elevated performance from a Brazil team with everything to prove.
Germany
While Germany impressed in their first matchup, Lena Oberdorf's missing impact was clearly visible in the matchup against the US. Germany's biggest issue is failing to capitalize on the chances created. There's a lack of a killer edge on the team, despite the obvious effort being put forth, which creates frustration. Facing Zambia in the final match doesn't help Germany, as Barbra Banda and Racheal Kundananji will take advantage of every single centimeter you give them. A frustrated Germany will have to face a frustrating Zambia that can generate momentum swings at the drop of the hat.
Japan
Japan faces Nigeria in their last group stage match-up and is more secure in their advancement after collecting all three points against Brazil. Although it took a penalty kick and an exquisite goal to pull the comeback off, Japan demonstrated their ability to turn the momentum around when the moment called for it. There is perhaps no better team at rising to the occasion than Japan and the pieces are starting to click at just the right moments. With the confidence from the late come-from-behind win, Japan will likely sneak into that second-place spot in Group C.
An important note is that Groups B and C benefit from Group A having their third and fourth-place team sitting on 0 points. With two of three third-place teams advancing, Canada starting from a -3 position has greatly increased the odds of teams like Brazil and Australia advancing (or Japan and Germany).
The Sure-ish Bets
Spain:
The reigning World Cup champions have found ways to win against Japan and Nigeria, giving them six points and a goal differential of 2. It hasn't looked easy, and the team has relied on moments of impossible magic, but so far the job has gotten done. More than that, Spain never looks frazzled and has the wherewithal to flip the momentum on a dime like they did against Japan. It's been a different kind of domination than the World Cup, with results closer than Spain would like but they're still producing the results that matter, all without looking like they're digging deep or playing grittier.
USA
The US is back! Or at least, the front line is and the backline is stable enough under Naomi Girma's leadership to withstand pressure. With a goal differential of nine, it's clear the frontline of Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson, and Sophia Smith is clicking. Tierna Davidson suffering an injury against Germany is worrying, but the backline is solid. The weak spot for the US continues to be the midfield, with the pressure being on Swanson and Rodman to drop deep to produce forward progression. Doable, but certainly not what you'd expect with Rose Lavelle and Lindsey Horan supposed to be doing the playmaking.
Colombia
With a decisive win over Canada and a little help from New Zealand, Colombia could top Group A if they defeat Canada with a larger goal differential than France. It's all about mentality with Colombia, something they've improved upon if the near comeback over France says anything. This is a team with something to prove, which makes them more likely to come out with the victory, despite Canada also having a chip on their shoulder. The offense has been finding the back of the net, the defense has demonstrated their ability to learn in a match, and so far there's been no relying on a single player to produce results.
France
Although only on three points, France plays New Zealand in their final group stage match and should pick up all three points there. It would be tempting to see that the death loss to Canada is an exception, but France isn't unshakable and the loss is a reminder of that. Despite having all the pieces, confidence has been hard to maintain for the squad and they can make things harder than they need to be for themselves. The important thing for France will be to put together a complete 90-minute game against New Zealand while scoring as many goals as possible.
Near Impossible
Canada
Unfortunately for Canada, the drone spying scandal means the team went into the second group stage game -3. With the two other third-place teams sitting at three points already, it's increasingly improbable that Canada will climb out of that deficit and advance. A gutsy win over France keeps Canada's dreams alive, but it will all come down to the final match against Colombia, who will also be fighting for a spot in the quarterfinals. Playing with everything to gain and a massive chip on their shoulders about the position their coaching staff has left them in, Canada just might pull the improbable off. But, it will require the performance of a lifetime against a Colombia team that is bursting with audacity and confidence.
Nigeria
The results just haven't gone the way Nigeria wanted this Olympics. Holding Spain to one, admittedly fantastic, goal demonstrates just how good Nigeria is. While the defense has been incredibly stingy, Chiamaka Nnadozie has made incredible stops against some of the world's best strikers. However, the offense has failed to find the back of the net, making it difficult for Nigeria to net the results needed. A win by two goals or more over Japan and Nigeria has hope, but asking for two goals might be the impossible task of this tournament.
Zambia
With a rough opening against the US, Zambia showed just how lethal they are by putting five goals past Australia and very nearly taking the match. Barbra Banda has, once again, been an Olympic sensation scoring another hat trick. The team brings the most excitement and end-to-end action out of any of the 12 teams. Unfortunately, failing to secure any sort of result against Australia all but determines that Zambia will not advance out of the group stage. It's a shame. And it's even more shameful that Bruce Mwape was allowed to coach this talented team despite the sexual misconduct against him.
New Zealand
From being spied on to losing Ali Riley before their opening match, this has been the exact opposite of the Olympic Games New Zealand wanted. After putting in a good fight against Canada, New Zealand was shut out against Colombia. Part of the struggle is that New Zealand simply can't seem to elevate their game for an entire 90 minutes. Struggling to score, the defense puts in an incredibly organized effort for between 45 to 60 minutes, but opponents are often able to find the space and make New Zealand pay for it. It's been a rough outing and a final matchup against France does not make things easier for the Football Ferns.
The group action wraps up on Wednesday, July 31st. There are plenty of quarterfinal spots up for grabs and each matchup is guaranteed to be absolutely riveting. Games start at 11:00 a.m. EST.
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