"Oh here we go again..." another Tar Heels team, another College Cup, another meeting with Duke. It is absolutely absurd to call the winningest program in women's college soccer tortured, but it's only fitting that North Carolina is The Tortured Poets Department. The more apt comparison is simply that Taylor Swift has won Album of the Year more than anyone else and North Carolina has 21 National Championships. However, the Tar Heels can claim tortured if they want, with an interim head coach and massive roster turnover at the end of last year. "Old habits dying screaming," and this is a UNC side that believes anything less than a title is a failure.
Recaps: Tournament, Season, Duke
Up until Friday's matchup with Penn St., North Carolina hadn't conceded a goal in tournament play. The match up stretched the Tar Heels to overtime for the first time and forced North Carolina to respond early as Penn State scored 14 minutes into the game. Otherwise, despite a 1-0 win over Santa Clara, it's looked relatively easy for the Tar Heels. They've scored 14 goals and conceded one. UNC probably doesn't mind having a come from behind win under their belt either, it's good for team confidence.
North Carolina doesn't do anything by half-measures, evidenced by the fact that they have yet to tie a game. The Tar Heels are 20-5 with their signature game coming early. A 3-2 win over Colorado demonstrated the potential that UNC had. After scoring first, North Carolina allowed two Colorado goals before Kate Faasse evened the score in the 88th minute. With less than twenty seconds remaining, Faasse scored again to give the Tar Heels the win. For a team that was still coming together, the win signified the grit and sense of belief shared, all while putting teams on notice that no lead was safe.
This season, the Tar Heels have scored 60 goals and conceded 22, a pretty decent ratio all things considered. However, while UNC has only allowed 193 shots this season, 94 have been on target. To put it in a percentage, nearly 49% of their opponents' shots have been on target compared to 44% of UNC...and UNC is taking about three times the number of shots. While North Carolina wins the creativity battle, they have a tendency to lose the efficiency one. And that's going to make for an interesting meet up against a Duke team that's both creative and relatively efficient.
On Friday, UNC will square off against Duke for the fourth time this season. Duke has had the Tar Heels number so far, but North Carolina won the last match to give themselves momentum. The early season 1-0 loss to the Blue Devils was UNC's first loss of the season and their first time being shutout. The end of season loss was the tail end of a skid for UNC, who let Duke score the opening two goals before Olivia Thomas pulled one back in the 55th minute. The Blue Devils scored 12 minutes later to reassert a two-goal lead, but Kate Faasse scored in the 88th minute to add more excitement to the game. In the ACC tournament, UNC finally triumphed to bounce Duke, winning 2-1 with Linda Ullmark scoring in the 50th minute and Trinity Armstrong winning the game in the 81st.
Tactics and Storylines
Okay, the elephant in the room: Anson Dorrance retired just before UNC's opening game. On top of the (publicly) unexpected retirement, the Tar Heels had to lean into the portal to recruit a team that saw immense turnover last season. It's a team that has had to build chemistry on every level to make it to this College Cup and hasn't had the luxury of time to do so. It's probably no wonder that UNC is either win or lose—the wonder is that it's come up as win so often this season.
Tactically, this is the fourth time UNC has matched up with Duke and the third time in about a month.
As head coach Damon Nehas pointed out after a question by Kip Coons for Press Box View, there really isn't a variation these two opponents haven't seen this season.
"They just happen to be on our schedule on Friday," Nehas said. "It's about preparing and keeping ourselves focused...at the end of the day it's two really, really good teams that have high ambitions."
Maybe it's trite to say one should expect UNC to play like UNC, but it's the truth. Nehas was adamant that North Carolina wouldn't change their gameplan because it's Duke. What that means is to expect Faasse to feature prominently in the attack. Ullmark and Olivia Thomas offer secondary scoring options that can drop in from wide or clean up balls that bounce around the box. Bella Sember will be everywhere in the midfield and her connecting passes will be key for the Tar Heels to advance down the field, but also to retain possession and recycle the ball when the options just aren't there.
On defense, the Tar Heels don't give up a lot, but they do tend to give up more dangerous shots on net. Luckily, Clare Gagne has been phenomenal in net with a .750 save percentage. The defense in front of her has been stringent as well, and freshman Trinity Armstrong has made an impact on offense, scoring the game winner against Duke. There's no good way to break through the defense, though attacking straight down the middle forces decisions in a way that crossing wide doesn't. As is the case with any team, how much space UNC allows Duke in the box will determine the outcome of the game, especially on set pieces.
More than the matchup on the field, whoever wins the mental battle wins the game. An early goal could help to settle nerves, but it will be managing emotions, positive and negative, that will dictate the mental response. These two teams are used to the rivalry, now it's the last game of the season for one of them, making this round a lot bigger than even the ACC tournament match up. Walking the line between the confidence of winning the last battle, the nerves of the NCAA tournament, and the weight of expectations is a lot for anyone. If UNC can manage those emotions while ratcheting up the pressure on Duke so they can't, the game is theirs.
Press Notes
Unique to North Carolina:
"I think the biggest thing, for me, is that they're all, I think they're all really comfortable with being who they are. I mean, obviously, we try to accomplish something as a team, but I think one of the strengths of the team is their personalities. They like to have a good time, they know when to turn it on and turn it off."
"This team's journey is unique in terms of last spring to where they are now, it's something that I'm really proud of them in regards to all the different obstacles and challenges they've had to hit straight on and not flinch."
"These girls are resilient, excited, they're fun, they inspire me everyday, they're themselves. They've dealt with so much the outside world could see as adversity or obstacles and they just looked at it as opportunity and they've hit it head on."
Special about three North Carolina teams (Victor Olorunfemi, Top Drawer Soccer)
"It's kind neat, right? And all three universities, from the academic side of it, just from overall sports, in general all sports have been really successful."
"I think the ACC plays a big role in it. All the schools we get to be able to share with any respective recruit out there is that we get to play in what we like to think is the best conference, the most competitive conference in the country."
Coaching Update (Kip Coons, Press Box View):
"Honestly, outside of the general conversation, I know that he's [Bubba Cunningham, AD for UNC] close to whatever decision he's going to make."
"To be honest with you, the last month or so...I just have really focused on the girls and the team, it's kept me clear-minded without worrying about my future, what it will or won't be. I'll be ok no matter what, it's more of me just trying to do something special with this team that's worked so hard."
To recap: Tortured? Maybe not. Relying heavily on team alchemy? Definitely. Goals? Could come from Linda or Kate or Bella or Tessa. While UNC is too big a powerhouse to ask "Who's Afraid of Little Old Me?" beating Duke for the second time in a big tournament game would certainly add credibility to the idea that there's no one who would "last an hour" on the pedestal the program sits. With two games of the season left, everyone is beginning to ask, "How Did it End?" and the Tar Heels want to ensure the answer is: with a National Championship.
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